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Language, Speech, and Hearing Services in Schools Vol.32 38-50 January 2001. doi:10.1044/0161-1461(2001/004)
© American Speech-Language-Hearing Association
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Estimating the Risk of Future Reading Difficulties in Kindergarten Children

A Research-Based Model and Its Clinical Implementation

Hugh W. Catts 1
Marc E. Fey 2
Xuyang Zhang 3

J. Bruce Tomblin 3
1 University of Kansas, Lawrence
2 University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City
3 University of Iowa, Iowa City

catts{at}ukans.edu

Purpose: Speech-language pathologists have the skills and knowledge needed to play an important role in the early identification of children who are at risk for reading difficulties. Whereas research has identified language and other factors that may be predictive of future reading problems, studies have not provided the statistical models and classification data needed for the implementation of early identification programs. In this paper, we report the results of a longitudinal study that examined kindergarten predictors of second-grade reading outcome.

Method: Six hundred and four children were given a battery of language, early literacy, and nonverbal cognitive measures in kindergarten as part of an epidemiologic study of language impairments in children. Follow-up testing of reading achievement was completed in second grade. Participants were divided into those children with and without reading difficulties.

Results: Findings indicated that five kindergarten variables (letter identification, sentence imitation, phonological awareness, rapid naming, and mother's education) uniquely predicted reading outcome in second grade.

Clinical Implications: A logistic regression formula and classification data based on these results are provided. Suggestions are offered concerning how this information could be used in an early identification and intervention program for children who are at risk for reading difficulties.

KEY WORDS: early identification, reading difficulties, reading disabilities, prevention, logistic regression

Submitted on May 24, 2000
Accepted on July 12, 2000




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